Latent Integrated Stochastic Volatility, Realized Volatility, and Implied Volatility: A State Space Approach

Christian Bach () and Bent Jesper Christensen
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Christian Bach: Aarhus University, School of Economics and Management and CREATES, Postal: Bartholins Allé 10, 8000 Aarhus C, Denmark

CREATES Research Papers from Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University

Abstract: We include simultaneously both realized volatility measures based on high-frequency asset returns and implied volatilities backed out of individual traded at the money option prices in a state space approach to the analysis of true underlying volatility. We model integrated volatility as a latent fi?rst order Markov process and show that our model is closely related to the CEV and Barndorff-Nielsen & Shephard (2001) models for local volatility. We show that if measurement noise in the observable volatility proxies is not accounted for, then the estimated autoregressive parameter in the latent process is downward biased. Implied volatility performs better than any of the alternative realized measures when forecasting future integrated volatility. The results are largely similar across the stock market (S&P 500), bond market (30-year U.S. T-bond), and foreign currency exchange market ($/£ ).

Keywords: Autoregression; bipower variation; high-frequency data; implied volatility; integrated volatility; Kalman fi?lter; moving average; option prices; realized volatility; state space model; stochastic volatility. (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C32 G13 G14 G17 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 36
Date: 2011-02-11
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-ecm, nep-ets, nep-mst and nep-ore
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:aah:create:2010-61

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