Forecasting Causes of Death using Compositional Data Analysis: the Case of Cancer Deaths

Søren Kjærgaard (), Yunus Emre Ergemen (), Malene Kallestrup-Lamb (), Jim Oeppen () and Rune Lindahl-Jacobsen ()
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Søren Kjærgaard: University of Southern Denmark, Postal: Interdisciplinary Centre on Population Dynamics, University of Southern Denmark, J.B. Winsløws Vej 9B st. tv., 5000 Odense C, DK
Yunus Emre Ergemen: University of Aarhus and CREATES, Postal: Department of Economics and Business Economics, University of Aarhus, Fuglesangs Allé 4, Building 2621, 13, 8210 Aarhus V, DK
Malene Kallestrup-Lamb: University of Aarhus and CREATES, Postal: Department of Economics and Business Economics, University of Aarhus, Fuglesangs Allé 4, Building 2631, 141a, 8210 Aarhus V, DK
Jim Oeppen: University of Southern Denmark, Postal: Interdisciplinary Centre on Population Dynamics, University of Southern Denmark, J.B. Winsløws Vej 9B st. tv., 5000 Odense C, DK
Rune Lindahl-Jacobsen: University of Southern Denmark, Postal: Interdisciplinary Centre on Population Dynamics, University of Southern Denmark, J.B. Winsløws Vej 9B st. tv., 5000 Odense C, DK

CREATES Research Papers from Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University

Abstract: Cause-specific mortality forecasting is often based on predicting cause-specific death rates independently. Only a few methods have been suggested that incorporate dependence among causes. An attractive alternative is to model and forecast cause-specific death distributions, rather than mortality rates, as dependence among the causes can be incorporated directly. We follow this idea and propose two new models which extend the current research on mortality forecasting using death distributions. We find that adding age, time, and cause-specific weights and decomposing both joint and individual variation among different causes of death increased the forecast accuracy of cancer deaths using data for French and Dutch populations

Keywords: Cause-specific mortality; Cancer forecast; Forecasting methods; Compositional Data Analysis; Population health (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C22 C23 C53 I12 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 31
Date: 2019-05-09
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-bec, nep-eur, nep-for and nep-ore
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (14)

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