A statistical model of the global carbon budget

Mikkel Bennedsen (), Eric Hillebrand () and Siem Jan Koopman
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Mikkel Bennedsen: Aarhus University and CREATES, Postal: Department of Economics and Business Economics, Fuglesangs Allé 4, 8210 Aarhus V, Denmark
Eric Hillebrand: Aarhus University and CREATES, Postal: Department of Economics and Business Economics, Fuglesangs Allé 4, 8210 Aarhus V, Denmark

CREATES Research Papers from Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University

Abstract: We propose a dynamic statistical model of the Global Carbon Budget (GCB) as represented in the annual data set made available by the Global Carbon Project (Friedlingsstein et al., 2019, Earth System Science Data 11, 1783-1838), covering the sample period 1959-2018. The model connects four main objects of interest: atmospheric CO2 concentrations, anthropogenic CO2 emissions, the absorption of CO2 by the terrestrial biosphere (land sink) and by the ocean and marine biosphere (ocean sink). The model captures the global carbon budget equation, which states that emissions not absorbed by either land or ocean sinks must remain in the atmosphere and constitute a flow to the stock of atmospheric concentrations. Emissions depend on global economic activity as measured by World gross domestic product (GDP), and sink activity depends on the level of atmospheric concentrations and the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI). We use the model to determine the time series dynamics of atmospheric concentrations, to assess parameter uncertainty, to compute key variables such as the airborne fraction and sink rate, to forecast the GCB components from forecasts of World-GDP and SOI, and to conduct scenario analysis based on different possible future paths of World-GDP.

Keywords: Global Carbon Budget; world GDP; CO2 emissions; CO2 concentrations; ENSO; airborne fraction; sink rate; climate system modeling (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C32 C49 C51 C52 C53 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 54
Date: 2020-12-18
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-ene and nep-env
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (3)

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