The Arab Spring was predictable in 2007: Empirics of Proof

Simplice Asongu and Jacinta Nwachukwu ()
Additional contact information
Jacinta Nwachukwu: Coventry University, UK

No 17/052, Research Africa Network Working Papers from Research Africa Network (RAN)

Abstract: We model core demands for better governance (political, economic and institutional), more employment and less consumer price inflation using a methodological innovation on the complete elimination of cross-country differences in signals susceptible of sparking social revolts. The empirical evidence based on 14 MENA countries show that the Arab Spring was predictable in 2007 to occur between January 2011 and April 2012. While the findings predict the wave of cross-country revolutions with almost mathematical precision, caveats and cautions are discussed for the scholar to understand the expositional dimensions of the empirics.

Keywords: Arab Spring; Political Instability; Timing; Economic Growth (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: N17 O11 O20 O47 P52 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 12
Date: 2017-06
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations:

Published in the Africagrowth Agenda, 14(4), pp. 4-7 (2017)

Downloads: (external link)
http://publications.resanet.org/RePEc/abh/abh-wpap ... mpirics-of-Proof.pdf Revised version, 2017 (application/pdf)

Related works:
Journal Article: The Arab Spring was Predictable in 2007: Empirics of Proof (2017)
Working Paper: The Arab Spring was predictable in 2007: Empirics of Proof (2017)
Working Paper: The Arab Spring was predictable in 2007: Empirics of Proof (2017)
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:abh:wpaper:17/052

Access Statistics for this paper

More papers in Research Africa Network Working Papers from Research Africa Network (RAN)
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Anutechia Asongu Simplice ().