Demographic Change, Macroeconomic Conditions, and the Murder Rate: The Case of the United States, 1934 to 2006

John Nunley (), Richard Seals () and Joachim Zietz

No auwp2010-04, Auburn Economics Working Paper Series from Department of Economics, Auburn University

Abstract: Fluctuations in aggregate crime rates contrary to recent shifts in the age distribution of the U.S. population have cast doubt on the predictive power of the age-crime hypothesis. By examining a longer time horizon, back to the early 1930s,, we show that the percentage of the young population is a robust predictor of the observed large swings in the U.S. murder rate over time. However, changes in the misery index—the sum of the inflation and unemployment rates—significantly contribute to explaining changes in the murder rate. This applies, in particular, to those changes that are at odds with the long-run trend of the U.S. age distribution, such as the decline in the murder rate in the latter part of the 1970s or its increase starting around the middle of the 1980s.

Keywords: Murder Rate; Demographic Change; Age Composition; Crime; Misery Index (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: J10 J11 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2010-09
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-age and nep-his
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (2)

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Journal Article: Demographic change, macroeconomic conditions, and the murder rate: The case of the United States, 1934–2006 (2011)
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