Working Paper 73 - Economic and Political Causes of Civil Wars in Africa: Some Econometric Results

John Anyanwu

Working Paper Series from African Development Bank

Abstract: In this paper, we investigated whether civil wars in Africa have economic andpolitical causes. The model is based on the Collier-Hoeffler “greed” and “grievance”theory in which rebels will conduct a civil war for “loot-seeking” and “justiceseeking”reasons. Using logit models the propositions were tested empirically. Inparticular, six variables, GDP per capita growth rate in the preceding period, theamount of natural resources (proxied by primary commodity exports-GDP ratio),peace duration, democracy, social fractionalisation, and population size aresignificant and strong determinants of the onset of civil wars in Africa. The policyimplication is the combination of economic diversification, poverty and populationreduction, and political reforms so as to prevent conflict situations in Africancountries.

Date: 2002-12-01
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