Trends in China's Regional Grain Product and Their Implications

Yang Hong

No 1996-10, Chinese Economies Research Centre (CERC) Working Papers from University of Adelaide, Chinese Economies Research Centre

Abstract: The paper examines trends in China's regional grain production during the reform period and their impact on national grain output and interregional grain transfers. It finds that there are significant variations between regions in terms of magnitude and patterns of growth. In general, northern regions experienced a faster growth than southern regions. There is a tendency to shift grain production centres towards the north, resulting in a modification of crop composition in total national output. The share of wheat and maize increased whereas the share of rice decreased. In the meantime, the shift has also led to a change in the prevailing direction of grain flows in interregional transfers. The traditional south-north flow is being replaced by a shift in the opposite direction. An analysis of regional trends in sown areas and yields, however, suggests that for China as a whole, the potential for further increasing grain output is limited under the current level of technology and socio-economic conditions. This, together with the remaining low level of per capita grain output, means a struggle for China to meet its grain demand in the future.

Date: 1996
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