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Recent and Prospective Adoption of Genetically Modified Cotton: A Global CGE Analysis of Economic Impacts

Kym Anderson (), Ernesto Valenzuela () and Lee Ann Jackson ()
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Lee Ann Jackson: World Trade Organization, Geneva

No 2007-07, Centre for International Economic Studies Working Papers from University of Adelaide, Centre for International Economic Studies

Abstract: This paper provides estimates of the economic impact of initial adoption of genetically modified (GM) cotton and of its potential impacts beyond the few countries where it is currently common. Use is made of the latest version of the GTAP database and model. Our results suggest that by following the lead of China, South Africa and most recently India, adoption of GM cotton varieties by other developing countries – especially in Sub-Saharan Africa – could provide even larger proportionate gains to farmer and national welfare than in those early-adopting countries. Furthermore, those estimated gains are shown to exceed – and reinforce – those from a successful campaign under the WTO’s Doha Development Agenda to reduce/remove cotton subsidies and import tariffs globally.

Keywords: GMOs; cotton biotechnology; computable general equilibrium modeling; economic welfare; subsidy and tariff reform (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: D58 F17 Q16 Q17 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2007-09
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