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Climate Change and Food Security to 2030: A Global Economy-wide Perspective

Ernesto Valenzuela () and Kym Anderson ()

No 2011-02, Centre for International Economic Studies Working Papers from University of Adelaide, Centre for International Economic Studies

Abstract: Recent analyses of the possible adverse effects of climate change on agriculture in developing countries have raised food security concerns, especially for farm households who comprise most of the worldÂ’s poor and whose crop productivity is expected to fall. The present study uses a global economy-wide model to assess the expected (in some cases positive) effects on temperate zone crop productivity and the upward pressure on farm product prices from yield falls in developing countries. Also modelled is an expected adverse effect of higher temperatures and humidity in the tropics on the productivity of unskilled workers in developing countries. The net effect of those combined shocks on the agricultural sectorÂ’s competitiveness in any developing country is an economy-wide empirical matter, since unskilled workers are employed in nonfarm as well as farm activities. Given the degrees of uncertainty about plausible effects of climate change, our modelling accounts for a range of yield productivity and labor shocks. The results provide a range of consequences for international agricultural prices and for national food consumption, net farm income and economic welfare.

Keywords: Climate change; crop and labour productivity growth; global economy-wide model projections (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: D58 F17 Q17 Q24 Q54 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-agr, nep-ene and nep-env
Date: 2011-04
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Journal Article: Climate change and food security to 2030: a global economy-wide perspective (2011) Downloads
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