Evolving Consumption Patterns and Free Trade Agreements: Impacts on Global Wine Markets by 2020

Kym Anderson and Glyn Wittwer

No 2016-01, Wine Economics Research Centre Working Papers from University of Adelaide, Wine Economics Research Centre

Abstract: Over the past decade Asia has become far more important in global wine consumption, while in traditional wine-producing countries consumption has continued to fall and consumers are moving to higher-quality wines. Bilateral trade patterns are being affected also by changes in real exchange rates and the signing of new free trade agreements (FTAs). This paper examines empirically the impacts of these recent developments, and also of prospective FTAs, in key markets. We draw on our model of global wine markets to project all key markets over the next five years under various assumptions that reflect current views on prospective macroeconomic developments. We conclude that (1) China looks set to continue to dominate growth in global wine consumption and imports over the remainder of this decade and thus to become a far more dominant player in Asian wine markets, and (2) recent changes in real exchange rates and (to a lesser extent) the signing of new free trade agreements will change current bilateral trade patterns, particularly for New World wine-exporting countries.

Keywords: changes in tastes; global grape and wine model projections; real exchange rate changes; free trade agreements (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: F13 F15 F17 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 14 pages
Date: 2016-01
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:adl:winewp:2016-01

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