A Model of Global Beverage Markets

Glyn Wittwer and Kym Anderson

No 2019-05, Wine Economics Research Centre Working Papers from University of Adelaide, Wine Economics Research Centre

Abstract: This paper describes a new empirical model of the world's markets for alcoholic beverages and, to illustrate its usefulness, reports results from projections of those markets from 2016- 18 to 2025 under various scenarios. It not only revises and updates a model of the world's wine markets (Wittwer, Berger and Anderson, 2003) but also adds beer and spirits so as to capture the substitutability of those beverages among consumers. The model has some of the features of an economywide computable general equilibrium model, with international trade linking the markets of its 44 countries and seven residual regions. It is used to simulate prospects for these markets by 2025 (business-as-usual), which points to Asia's rise. Then two alternative scenarios to 2025 are explored: one simulates the withdrawal of the United Kingdom from the European Union (EU); the other simulates the effects of the recent imposition of additional 25% tariffs on selected beverages imported by the United States from several EU member countries. Future applications of the model are discussed in the concluding section.

Keywords: CGE modeling; wine; beer; spirits; changes in beverage preferences; international trade in beverages; premiumization of alcohol markets (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C53 F11 F17 Q13 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 24 pages
Date: 2020-02
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-cmp and nep-int
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (9)

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Related works:
Journal Article: A Model of Global Beverage Markets (2020)
Working Paper: A Model of Global Beverage Markets (2020)
Working Paper: A model of global beverage markets (2020)
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:adl:winewp:2019-05

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