Opportunistic Political Cycles: Test in a Young Democracy Setting

Akhmed Akhmedov () and Ekaterina Zhuravskaya
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Akhmed Akhmedov: Center for Economic and Financial Research

No 47, Economics Working Papers from Institute for Advanced Study, School of Social Science

Abstract: This paper tests the theory of opportunistic cycles in a decade-old democracy–Russia–finds strong evidence of cycles, and provides an explanation for why previous literature often found weaker evidence. Using regional monthly panel data, we find that: (1) the budget cycle is sizable and short-lived; public spending shifts towards direct monetary transfers to voters; (2) the magnitude of the cycle decreases with democracy, government transparency, media freedom, voter awareness, and over time; and (3) pre-electoral manipulation increases incumbents’ chances for reelection. The short length of the cycle explains underestimation of its size by previous literature because of low frequency data used in previous studies.

Keywords: Opportunistic Political Cycles; Maturity of Democracy; Russia; Fiscal Policy; Government Transparency (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E32 H72 P16 P35 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 33 pages
Date: 2004-06
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (335)

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Related works:
Journal Article: Opportunistic Political Cycles: Test in a Young Democracy Setting (2004)
Working Paper: Opportunistic Political Cycles: Test in a Young Democracy Setting (2003)
Working Paper: Opportunistic Political Cycles: Test in a Young Democracy Setting (2003)
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