An empirical examination of exchange-rate credibility determinants in the EMS

Francisco Ledesma (), Jorge Pérez-Rodríguez () and Simon Sosvilla-Rivero

No 04-01, Working Papers from Asociación Española de Economía y Finanzas Internacionales

Abstract: This paper provides empirical evidence on the determinants of exchange rate credibility under the European Monetary System (EMS). To that end, we have considered both economic variables and political factors using data of eight currencies participating in the Exchange Rate Mechanism, covering the complete EMS history (1979-1998). Our results suggest that the level of international reserves, the real interest rate and right-wing governments would have positively affected the credibility of a given central parity, while the unemployment rate and the inflation rate would have negative influenced such credibility.

Keywords: Credibility; Political variables; Exchange rates; European Monetary System (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C32 D72 F31 F33 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 8 pages
Date: 2004-03
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Related works:
Journal Article: An empirical examination of exchange-rate credibility determinants in the EMS (2006)
Working Paper: An empirical examination of exchange-rate credibility determinants in the EMS
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:aee:wpaper:0401

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