ENSO Forecast Value, Variable Climate and Stochastic Prices

David Letson, Guillermo Podesta, Carlos Messina and Andres Ferreyra

No 20562, 2001 Annual meeting, August 5-8, Chicago, IL from American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association)

Abstract: We evaluate ENSO forecasts when prices are variable and ENSO is a portion of overall climatic variability. Forecast responses include crop mix, cultivar,fertilization, and planting date. Price changes reduce forecast value by excluding responses. Predictable income variability (ENSO-related), as a share of the total, evaluates forecast skill.

Keywords: Environmental; Economics; and; Policy (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 15
Date: 2001
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:ags:aaea01:20562

DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.20562

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