MODELLING THE CAP ARABLE CROP REGIME UNDER UNCERTAINTY

Paolo Sckokai and Daniele Moro

No 19860, 2002 Annual meeting, July 28-31, Long Beach, CA from American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association)

Abstract: In this paper we evaluate empirically the absolute and relative size of risk-related effects of a farm policy change, with specific reference to the CAP arable crop regime. We adopt a dual framework under non linear mean-variance risk preferences, which incorporates the impact of price uncertainty in the specific decision-making structure of EU arable crop producers. A system of output supply, input demand and land allocation equations has been estimated on a sample of Italian specialised arable crop farms, which allows us to derive elasticities with respect to all the relevant exogenous variables, including those related to risk. The simulation of the impact of an Agenda 2000-type of shock confirms that the size of risk effects is important in evaluating farmer's output responses. This may have important implications for the revision of "green box" criteria in the context of the current WTO negotiations. Keywords: Risk effects; Common Agricultural Policy; Decoupling; Duality.

Keywords: Agricultural; and; Food; Policy (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 21
Date: 2002
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (24)

Downloads: (external link)
https://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/19860/files/sp02sc08.pdf (application/pdf)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:ags:aaea02:19860

DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.19860

Access Statistics for this paper

More papers in 2002 Annual meeting, July 28-31, Long Beach, CA from American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association) Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by AgEcon Search ().