FORECASTING IRRIGATION WATER DEMAND: A STRUCTURAL AND TIME SERIES ANALYSIS

Murali Adhikari, Jack E. Houston, Laxmi Paudel, Dipankar Bandyopadhyay, Biswo Nath Paudel and Nirmala Devkota

No 22109, 2003 Annual meeting, July 27-30, Montreal, Canada from American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association)

Abstract: An expected utility model was developed to capture the impacts of wealth, other economic, and institutional factors on irrigation acreage allocation decisions. Predicted water demand is derived from an expected utility structural model and various ARIMA models. No significant differences arise between forecasted irrigation acreage and, thereby, amount of forecasted water demand between econometric and time series models. However, estimates of water demand differ significantly from a Blaney-Criddle-based physical model.

Keywords: water forecasting; acreage response; water slippage; BC formula; Land Economics/Use; Resource/Energy Economics and Policy (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 24
Date: 2003
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:ags:aaea03:22109

DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.22109

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