INCORPORATING EPIDEMIOLOGICAL PROJECTIONS OF MORBIDITY AND MORTALITY INTO AN OPEN ECONOMY GROWTH MODEL: AIDS IN SOUTH AFRICA

Terry Roe and Rodney B.W. Smith

No 20254, 2004 Annual meeting, August 1-4, Denver, CO from American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association)

Abstract: HIV prevalence dynamics are introduced into a three sector, neoclassical growth model. The model is calibrated to South African national accounts data and used to examine the potential impact of HIV/AIDS on economic growth. Projections portend if left unchecked, the long run impact of HIV and AIDS could drive South African GDP to levels that are over 60% less than no-HIV levels, with AIDS death rates decreasing the long run stock of labor by over 60%.

Keywords: Health; Economics; and; Policy (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 30
Date: 2004
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:ags:aaea04:20254

DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.20254

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