FORECAST ENCOMPASSING AND FUTURES MARKET EFFICIENCY: THE CASE OF MILK FUTURES

Mark Manfredo and Dwight R. Sanders

No 20267, 2004 Annual meeting, August 1-4, Denver, CO from American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association)

Abstract: The traditional necessary condition for futures market inefficiency is the existence of alternative forecasting methods that produce mean squared forecast errors smaller than the futures market. Here, a more exacting requirement for futures market efficiency is proposed forecast encompassing. Using the multiple forecast encompassing procedure of Harvey and Newbold, forecast encompassing is tested with the CME fluid milk futures contract. Time series models and experts at the USDA provide the competing forecasts. The results suggest that the CME fluid milk futures do not encompass the information contained in the USDA forecasts at a two-quarter forecast horizon. While the competing forecasts generate positive revenues, it is unlikely that trading returns would exceed transaction costs in this relatively new futures market.

Keywords: Marketing (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 29
Date: 2004
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:ags:aaea04:20267

DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.20267

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