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EFFICIENCY OF FOREST COMMODITY FUTURES MARKETS

Dequan He and Matthew Holt ()

No 20344, 2004 Annual meeting, August 1-4, Denver, CO from American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association)

Abstract: Market efficiency and unbiasedness tests are performed for the first time for three forest commodity futures markets: softwood lumber, oriented strand board (OSB), and northern bleached softwood kraft pulp (NBSK). The Johansen cointegration procedure is applied to test long-term market efficiency, while the standard error correction models (ECM) and ECM with GQARCH-in-mean process are also used to examine short-term market efficiency and unbiasedness. Results show that these markets are inefficient and biased in both the long-term and short-term. Results also indicate that no short-term time-varying risk premiums are found in these commodity futures markets.

Keywords: Marketing (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2004
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