Determinants of Agricultural Output: Degree Days, Yields and Implications for Climate Change

Wolfram Schlenker, Michael Hanemann (michael.hanemann@asu.edu) and Anthony C. Fisher

No 19222, 2005 Annual meeting, July 24-27, Providence, RI from American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association)

Abstract: We link farmland values to climatic, soil, and socioeconomic variables for counties east of the 100th meridian, the historic boundary of agriculture not primarily dependent on irrigation. Degree days, a non-linear transformation of the climatic variables suggested by agronomic experiments as more relevant to crop yield gives an improved fit and increased robustness. Estimated coefficients are consistent with the experimental results. The model is employed to estimate the potential impacts on farmland values for a range of recent warming scenarios. The predictions are very robust and more than 75% of the counties in our sample show a statistically significant effect, ranging from moderate gains to large losses, with losses in the aggregate that can become quite large under scenarios involving sustained heavy use of fossil fuels.

Keywords: Land; Economics/Use (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 27
Date: 2004
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:ags:aaea05:19222

DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.19222

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