Identifying macroeconomic linkages to US agricultural trade balance

Jungho Baek and Won W. Koo

No 21048, 2006 Annual meeting, July 23-26, Long Beach, CA from American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association)

Abstract: This study explores the short-run and long-run relationships between the U.S. agricultural trade balance and domestic macroeconomic aggregates and agricultural variables. We use cointegration analysis and a vector error-correction model with quarterly data for 1981-2003. The results show that, in the long-run, the exchange rate, agricultural price, and disposable income are weakly exogenous in the U.S. agricultural sector and have significant effects on the trade balance. The combined short-run dynamic effects of the exchange rate, agricultural price and production, and disposable income jointly explain changes in the trade balance.

Keywords: International; Relations/Trade (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 24
Date: 2006
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Journal Article: Identifying Macroeconomic Linkages to U.S. Agricultural Trade Balance (2008)
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:ags:aaea06:21048

DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.21048

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