Prediction of Loan Deficiency Payments

Joseph Cooper () and Gerald Plato

No 9717, 2007 Annual Meeting, July 29-August 1, 2007, Portland, Oregon from American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association)

Abstract: This paper develops a stochastic model for estimating potential loan deficiency payments to U.S. corn producers in a discrete-dynamic context. We minimize the potential for misspecification bias by using nonparametric and semi-nonparametric approaches as specification checks in the model. The model permits the forecast at planting time of the resulting empirical distribution of LDP payments for that crop year. Using this model, the paper examines the sensitivity of this distribution to changes in expected price levels.

Keywords: Agricultural; Finance (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 27
Date: 2007
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:ags:aaea07:9717

DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.9717

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