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Impacts of Climate Change on Corn and Soybean Yields in China

Shuai Chen (), Xiaoguang Chen () and Jintao Xu

No 149739, 2013 Annual Meeting, August 4-6, 2013, Washington, D.C. from Agricultural and Applied Economics Association

Abstract: Using a unique county-level panel on crop yields and daily weather dataset over the past decade, we estimate the impact of climate change on corn and soybean yields in China. Our results suggest the existence of nonlinear and asymmetric relationships between corn and soybean yields and climate variables. We find that extreme high temperatures are always harmful for crop growth. Moreover, the rapid expansion of corn and soybean acreages at both intensive- and extensive margins had detrimental effects on corn and soybean yields. Using estimated coefficients, we estimate changing climate conditions over the study period has led to an economic loss of $220 million in 2009 alone in China’s corn and soybean sectors. Corn yields in China are predicted to decrease by 2-5% under the slowest warming scenario and by 5-15% under the fastest warming scenario by the end of the century. The reductions in soybean yields are found to be more pronounced, about 5-10% and 8-22%, respectively.

Keywords: Crop; Production/Industries (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 49
Date: 2013
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-agr, nep-env and nep-tra
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:ags:aaea13:149739

DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.149739

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