A Model of West African Millet Prices in Rural Markets

Molly Brown, Nathaniel Higgins and Beat Hintermann

No 150714, 2013 Annual Meeting, August 4-6, 2013, Washington, D.C. from Agricultural and Applied Economics Association

Abstract: In this article we specify a model of millet prices in the three West African countries of Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger. Using data obtained from USAID’s Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET) we present a unique regional cereal price forecasting model that takes advantage of the panel nature of our data, and accounts for the flow of millet across markets. Another novel aspect of our analysis is our use of the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) to detect and control for variation in conditions for productivity. The average absolute out-of-sample prediction error for 4- month-ahead millet prices is about 20 %.

Keywords: Crop Production/Industries; Demand and Price Analysis; International Relations/Trade (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 49
Date: 2013
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-afr and nep-for
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Related works:
Journal Article: A model of West African millet prices in rural markets (2015)
Working Paper: A Model of West African Millet Prices in Rural Markets (2009)
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:ags:aaea13:150714

DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.150714

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