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The Effects of Climate Changes on Brazilian Agricultural Production – A Multisector Growth Model Analysis

Humberto Francisco Silva Spolador and Rodney B.W. Smith

No 170294, 2014 Annual Meeting, July 27-29, 2014, Minneapolis, Minnesota from Agricultural and Applied Economics Association

Abstract: This paper develops a multisector growth model to examine the potential effects of climate change and Brazilian agriculture. In keeping with the current literature, the model assumes climate (here temperature and rainfall) affects agricultural output via its impact on total factor productivity (TFP). We begin by estimating an aggregate agricultural technology for Brazil, with econometric results suggesting a strong relationship exists between rainfall, temperature and agricultural TFP. We then introduce the climate effects into a dynamic multisector growth model of Brazil. Model results suggest climate change could have a negative impact on agriculture, but benefit manufacturing, with long run agricultural output per unit of labor being less than half of agricultural output per worker in a no climate change world.

Keywords: Environmental Economics and Policy; Productivity Analysis (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 25
Date: 2014-05
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-agr, nep-eff, nep-env, nep-gro and nep-lam
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:ags:aaea14:170294

DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.170294

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