Exploring the Implications of Oil Prices for Global Biofuels, Food Security, and GHG Mitigation

Yongxia Cai, Robert Beach and Yuquan Zhang

No 170589, 2014 Annual Meeting, July 27-29, 2014, Minneapolis, Minnesota from Agricultural and Applied Economics Association

Abstract: Efforts to satisfy global energy demand and improve food security while simultaneously taking action to mitigate climate change pose many key challenges for the world. In this study, the Applied Dynamic Analysis of the Global Economy (ADAGE), a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model, is applied to examine the impact of oil price on biofuel expansion, and subsequently, on food supply/price, land use change and climate mitigation potential, when both first and second generation biofuel feedstocks are considered. The results indicate despite a continued increase in land productivity and energy efficiency, increases in population and economic growth lead to a global increase in agriculture production, rising food, agriculture, biofuels, and energy prices, and land conversion from the other four land types to cropland in the REF scenario from 2010 to 2040. Oil price plays an important role in biofuel expansion. Globally, higher oil price leads to the expansion of biofuel production, increasing its share in total liquid fuel consumption in the private transportation sector. Consequently, more land is allocated for biofuel production, reducing global agriculture output and increasing agricultural consumption prices. Although emissions from land-use change increase, the overall emissions including fossil fuel emissions decreases. Regions display different patterns on biofuel expansions, land-use change, prices for food/agriculture and energy/biofuels, and GHG emissions.

Keywords: Agricultural and Food Policy; Environmental Economics and Policy; Food Security and Poverty; Resource/Energy Economics and Policy (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 15
Date: 2014-08
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-agr, nep-cmp, nep-ene and nep-env
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:ags:aaea14:170589

DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.170589

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