Economic Consequences of African Swine Fever: Strengthening U.S. Preparedness and Resilience

Tais Menezes and Amanda M. Countryman

No 360646, 2025 AAEA & WAEA Joint Annual Meeting, July 27-29, 2025, Denver, CO from Agricultural and Applied Economics Association

Abstract: African swine fever (ASF) represents a serious threat to the U.S. pork industry and global agricultural markets due to its high mortality rate and the absence of a commercial vaccine. This study evaluates the potential economic consequences of a hypothetical ASF outbreak in the U.S. using the Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) computable general equilibrium model. For our preliminary analysis, we simulate four outbreak scenarios, varying in scale and trade disruption, to estimate impacts on production, trade flows, prices, and welfare across major global regions. Preliminary results indicate that small, localized outbreaks have limited domestic and global economic effects, while large-scale outbreaks could trigger severe welfare losses for the U.S. (up to $11.4 billion), along with substantial price increases and trade realignments. Competing exporters such as Canada, Brazil, and the European Union benefit from reduced U.S. market presence, while import-dependent regions face welfare losses. Welfare decomposition analysis reveals that U.S. losses in small outbreaks are driven primarily by deteriorating terms of trade, whereas losses in large outbreaks stem from technological shocks to domestic productivity. Although preliminary, these findings highlight the importance of early detection, containment, and international regionalization agreements as key strategies to mitigate economic disruption. The study provides evidence to inform U.S. animal health policy and highlights the global interdependence of pork markets in the face of transboundary animal diseases.

Keywords: Agricultural; and; Food; Policy (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 21
Date: 2025
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:ags:aaea25:360646

DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.360646

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