Climate Variability and Drought: Quantifying Impacts on Cattle Stocking Rates and Agricultural Land Use Patterns

Shara Akat, Taro Mieno and Dennis. Elliott

No 360774, 2025 AAEA & WAEA Joint Annual Meeting, July 27-29, 2025, Denver, CO from Agricultural and Applied Economics Association

Abstract: Cattle stocking rate is a key decision in grazing management, influencing forage use, ecosystem resilience, and rangeland sustainability. This study investigates how drought conditions and hay availability affect stocking rates across the U.S. Using county-level panel data from 1982 to 2022, we estimate a fixed-effects model incorporating current and lagged drought indices, agroclimatic variables, and hay stocks. Results show that water deficits significantly reduce stocking rates, with effects persisting into the following year. Lower hay stocks are also associated with reduced stocking, indicating producers adjust stocking intensity in response to feed constraints. We project future stocking rates under CMIP6 climate scenarios (RCP 4.5 and 8.5) through 2099. Projections show gradual declines under RCP 4.5 and sustained reductions under RCP 8.5, especially after mid-century. These findings highlight the vulnerability of grazing systems to climate change and the need for adaptive management to maintain livestock productivity.

Keywords: Environmental; Economics; and; Policy (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 23
Date: 2025
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
https://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/360774/files/7 ... 5300_DWFI_SUBMIT.pdf (application/pdf)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:ags:aaea25:360774

DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.360774

Access Statistics for this paper

More papers in 2025 AAEA & WAEA Joint Annual Meeting, July 27-29, 2025, Denver, CO from Agricultural and Applied Economics Association Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by AgEcon Search ().