Food Security in Mega-Countries: Quantity, Nutrition, and Ecology in a Shape Constrained Generalized Additive Model Framework

Mi Zhou, Yinchuan Cao, Boyao Guan, Wuyang Hu and Li Huang

No 360873, 2025 AAEA & WAEA Joint Annual Meeting, July 27-29, 2025, Denver, CO from Agricultural and Applied Economics Association

Abstract: The growing human population poses severe challenges to food security, yet research on food security in the most populous countries, also known as mega-countries, remains limited. This study analyzes the spatiotemporal evolution of food security in mega-countries through the lenses of quantity, nutrition, and ecological security. A Shape Constrained Generalized Additive Model is employed to explore the nonlinear relationship between population size and food security, and to project future trends in food security among mega-countries. The results show that from 2001 to 2022, quantity security improved substantially, followed by nutrition security, while ecological security showed a declining trend. Disparities in food security across mega-countries have also widened. The relationship between population size and food security is nonlinear in various dimensions. Under our assumptions, food security is projected to decline in export-oriented mega-countries but improve in import-oriented ones. While urbanization tends to enhance food security, population aging may intensify food system pressures.

Keywords: Food; Security; and; Poverty (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 32
Date: 2025
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:ags:aaea25:360873

DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.360873

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