Historical Weather Shocks: Impacts on the Adoption of Conservation Practices

Kai Ling, Sunjae Won and Wendiam Sawadgo

No 404482, 2026 Annual Meeting, July 26 - 28, 2026, Kansas City, Missouri from Agricultural and Applied Economics Association

Abstract: This study investigates the dynamic impact of multi-year weather histories on the adoption of conservation practices in Iowa, Illinois, and Indiana. Using county-level panel data from the Census of Agriculture (2012, 2017, 2022) and monthly weather records from 2007 to 2022, we employ a two-way fixed effects distributed lag model (TWFE-DLM) and a modified Almon-Ridge (AR) estimator. This modified estimator allows us to recover smooth, interpretable lag profiles while mitigating the multicollinearity inherent in multi-ysear climate variables. Our results demonstrate that weather shocks exert persistent effects on adoption for up to five years. Notably, we find that variations in precipitation during the crop planting season trigger distinctly different responses: historically abundant spring rainfall consistently fosters the adoption of conservation tillage techniques, yet it is negatively correlated with the adoption of cover cropping. These findings underscore that climate adaptation is a path dependent process, one in which short-term operational constraints often precipitate long-term shifts in behavioral patterns. Consequently, effective agricultural conservation policies must move beyond purely static incentive mechanisms to fully account for these seasonally asymmetric effects, striving instead to support flexible and forward-looking long-term management strategies.

Keywords: Environmental; Economics; and; Policy (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 4
Date: 2026
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:ags:aaea26:404482

DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.404482

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