Chinese Trade Competition and Rural Mexican Migration

Zach Rutledge and Joaquin Mayorga

No 404603, 2026 Annual Meeting, July 26 - 28, 2026, Kansas City, Missouri from Agricultural and Applied Economics Association

Abstract: China’s accession to the World Trade Organization in 2001 reshaped global trade, reducing U.S. demand for Mexican manufactured goods and weakening Mexico’s manufacturing employment. This study estimates how this trade-induced decline affected migration and employment decisions among rural Mexicans. Using individual-level panel data from the Mexican National Rural Household Survey (ENHRUM) and a long-difference framework, we instrument manufacturing employment with regional exposure to Chinese import competition. Results show that a 10-percentage-point decline in manufacturing employment increased the probability of U.S. migration by 24 percentage points and U.S. nonagricultural employment by 17 points, with no significant effects on agricultural employment.

Keywords: Consumer/Household Economics; Labor and Human Capital (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 44
Date: 2026
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:ags:aaea26:404603

DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.404603

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