Cartel Violence and Industry Capture in the Mexican Avocado Industry

Elnaz Asadi, K Aleks Schaefer and Irvin Rojas

No 404667, 2026 Annual Meeting, July 26 - 28, 2026, Kansas City, Missouri from Agricultural and Applied Economics Association

Abstract: Due to phytosanitary requirements, the United States historically allowed avocado imports only from Michoacán. In August 2022, however, Jalisco was also authorized to export avocados to the United States, expanding export opportunities into a new region. This paper examines how economic shocks in legal sectors, such as the avocado industry, a ect cartel-related crime in Mexico. We focus on two dimensions of cartel behavior: the extensive margin, which refers to cartel entry into new regions or activities, and the intensive margin, which captures changes in the level of existing criminal activity. The results show no evidence that Jalisco's export authorization increased cartel entry or the reallocation of criminal activity across regions. However, higher avocado prices are associated with lower levels of extortion in avocado-producing municipalities and in Michoacán, the historically dominant exporting region. Overall, the results suggest that economic shocks a ect cartel violence mainly through changes in existing criminal activity rather than through expansion into new regions.

Keywords: International; Relations/Trade (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 27
Date: 2026
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:ags:aaea26:404667

DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.404667

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