Trade, Trucks, and Landslides: The Impact of Natural Disasters on Domestic Trade

Taejun Mo, Gustavo Nino and William Ridley

No 404669, 2026 Annual Meeting, July 26 - 28, 2026, Kansas City, Missouri from Agricultural and Applied Economics Association

Abstract: Disruptions to supply chain transportation networks, such as natural disasters, can generate substantial economic costs. This paper combines data on more than 1,200 road-related landslides with seven years of weekly domestic trade data in Colombia to estimate the effects of transportation network disruptions on domestic trade and welfare. Using a structural gravity framework, we show that landslides reduce trade by increasing transport frictions. However, their welfare effects are not uniform and disruptions reallocate trade across regions, generating both winners and losers. Our results show that regions with stronger export orientation experience welfare gains when landslides occur, while regions more dependent on imports experience welfare losses. These effects reflect both direct bilateral impacts and indirect multilateral adjustments across the domestic trade network.

Keywords: International; Relations/Trade (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 66
Date: 2026
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:ags:aaea26:404669

DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.404669

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