Climate Change, Agricultural Production, and International Trade

Taejun Mo

No 404670, 2026 Annual Meeting, July 26 - 28, 2026, Kansas City, Missouri from Agricultural and Applied Economics Association

Abstract: We investigate how climate-induced changes in agricultural productivity will reshape global agricultural trade patterns, and how trade policy mediates these effects. We employ a structural gravity model combining econometric and counterfactual simulation-based analyses using spatially resolved data reflecting anticipated productivity impacts for six major crops. Our analysis yields three main findings: (1) climate change will significantly alter the geography of global agricultural production and trade, (2) trade offers a crucial mechanism through which the impacts of climate change can be mitigated, and (3) trade liberalization can further amplify the role of trade in buffering the economic effects of climate change.

Keywords: International; Relations/Trade (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 49
Date: 2026
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:ags:aaea26:404670

DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.404670

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