Viral Impact: Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza H5N1 Milk Loss on U.S. Dairy Farms

Madison Morse, Kathy Whitman, Natalie Urie, Nathan DeLay and Jason Lombard

No 404691, 2026 Annual Meeting, July 26 - 28, 2026, Kansas City, Missouri from Agricultural and Applied Economics Association

Abstract: Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI) H5N1 had a significant impact on U.S. dairy production during the outbreak beginning in 2024. We estimate the causal effect of HPAI H5N1 on per-cow milk production using a staggered differences-in-differences (DiD) analysis. Results indicate that HPAI H5N1 reduces per-cow average daily milk production by 7.52%. Substantial treatment effect heterogeneity is identified with some group-level treatment effects exceeding 20%. We provide the most comprehensive empirical evidence to date on the production impacts of HPAI H5N1 on U.S. dairy farms. This study offers insights on transboundary animal disease costs for policymakers designing compensation programs and disease mitigation strategies.

Keywords: Production; Economics (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 42
Date: 2026
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:ags:aaea26:404691

DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.404691

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