Nonlinear Effects of Climate Variables on Sorghum Yield in Texas: Evidence from County-Level Panel Data

Anzalin Talukder, Mark Yu, K.M. Mehedi Adnan, Selin Guney and Edward Osei

No 404704, 2026 Annual Meeting, July 26 - 28, 2026, Kansas City, Missouri from Agricultural and Applied Economics Association

Abstract: This study examines how weather conditions affect sorghum yield across major sorghumproducing Texas counties from 1981 to 2020. Using a county-level panel dataset and a two-way fixed-effects model with Driscoll–Kraay standard errors, the analysis evaluates nonlinear precipitation effects, degree-day temperature exposure, and maximum vapor pressure deficit (VPD). Results show a nonlinear precipitation–yield relationship, indicating that both moisture deficits and excessive rainfall reduce productivity. Higher VPD is consistently associated with lower sorghum yields, while the estimated effect of extreme heat weakens after atmospheric dryness is included. Robustness checks support the main findings, while the soil water-holding capacity test provides limited evidence of moderation. These results highlight the importance of incorporating atmospheric moisture demand into climate-risk assessment and adaptation planning for semi-arid agricultural systems.

Keywords: Production; Economics (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 34
Date: 2026
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:ags:aaea26:404704

DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.404704

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