Modelling the management of multiple-use reservoirs: Deterministic or stochastic dynamic programming?

Lap Doc Tran, Steven Schilizzi, Morteza Chalak and Ross S. Kingwell

No 124463, 2012 Conference (56th), February 7-10, 2012, Fremantle, Australia from Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society

Abstract: Modelling complex systems such as multiple-use reservoirs can be challenging. A legitimate question for scientists and modellers is how best to model their management under uncertain rainfall. This paper studies whether it is worth using a stochastic model that requires more effort than a much simpler deterministic model. Both models are applied to the management of a multiple-use reservoir in southern Vietnam. Although no single modelling approach is universally superior, this study indicates that the desirable modelling approach is stochastic if reservoir capacity and water use demands have a high enough impact on the optimal timing of reservoir water use.

Keywords: Research Methods/Statistical Methods; Resource/Energy Economics and Policy (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 20
Date: 2012-02
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:ags:aare12:124463

DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.124463

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