The Value of Remote Sensing Harvest Forecast Information in Global Food Security

Tetsuji Tanaka, Jin Guo, Laixiang Sun, Xiao-Peng Song and Inbal Becker-Reshef

No 356745, Agricultural Economics Society 99th Annual Conference, April 14-16, 2025, The University of Bordeaux, France from Agricultural Economics Society (AES)

Abstract: In recent years, global market shocks have significantly destabilised the international grain market. By capitalising on seasonal differences between the Northern and Southern Hemispheres and utilising early wheat harvest forecast information derived from remotely sensed satellite imagery, farmers in the Southern Hemisphere can respond to timely information to maximise profits. This global hedging mechanism contributes to stabilising the global wheat market. We employ a panel vector error correction model (VECM) to analyse the global agricultural market balancing system using remotely sensed wheat harvest data, focusing on 12 wheat-importing countries. The value of this information is assessed based on profits derived from price stabilisation. The results indicate that import prices in the 12 analysed countries could be stabilised by 10% to 19%, resulting in annual profit gains for importers totaling 364 million USD. When extrapolated globally, the combined profit for exporters and importers is conservatively estimated at approximately 4.98 billion USD.

Keywords: Agribusiness; Agricultural Finance; Demand and Price Analysis; Research Methods/Statistical Methods (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 27
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-agr
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
https://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/356745/files/Tetsuji_Tanaka_Full%20Paper.pdf (application/pdf)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:ags:aes025:356745

DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.356745

Access Statistics for this paper

More papers in Agricultural Economics Society 99th Annual Conference, April 14-16, 2025, The University of Bordeaux, France from Agricultural Economics Society (AES) Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by AgEcon Search ().