Bridging the Hemispheres: A Global Balancing Mechanism for Stabilizing Soybean Supply and Prices

Tetsuji Tanaka, Jin Guo, Laixiang Sun and Xiao-Peng Song

No 397872, 100th Annual Conference, March 23-25, 2026, Wadham College, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK from Agricultural Economics Society (AES)

Abstract: Climate-induced yield variability and a global soybean import-to-production ratio exceeding 40% have rendered international food markets increasingly vulnerable to regional supply shocks. Here we evaluate a "global hedging mechanism" that leverages remote sensing (RS) technology to exploit the seasonal production asymmetries between the Northern and Southern Hemispheres. By integrating early-season forecasts from the Southern Hemisphere into the planting decisions of Northern Hemisphere farmers, this information-based coordination allows for ex ante production adjustments that stabilize global supply and prices. Using counterfactual simulations and risk-premium measures derived from expected utility and prospect theories, we demonstrate that the utilization of RS information reduces import price volatility across all eight sampled countries, with significant declines of 10.0% in Hungary and 9.3% in Iran. While conventional expected utility models estimate global annual welfare benefits up to USD 954 million , our behavioral analysis accounting for loss aversion through prospect theory reveals that benefits could reach approximately USD 15.5 billion. These results underscore the disproportionate impact of price spikes on welfare in vulnerable, import dependent economies. Our findings suggest that RS-based forecasting functions as a global public good, providing a cost-effective, market-compatible safety net. Investing in international RS infrastructure and integrating transparent information into food policy are essential steps for enhancing the resilience of the global agricultural value chain against future climatic crises.

Keywords: International; Relations/Trade (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 30
Date: 2026-03
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:ags:aes026:397872

DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.397872

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