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Evaluating the Economic Impact of Brexit: ‘Fearmongering’ or Just a Matter of Degree?

Steve McCorriston

No 265729, 2018 Allied Social Sciences Association (ASSA) Annual Meeting, January 5-7, 2018, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania from Agricultural and Applied Economics Association

Abstract: The UK’s decision to leave the European Union (Brexit) is a potential watershed for the UK economy. Economists are almost unanimous that this will lead to welfare losses, the extent being contingent on the specific form of UK trade relations post-Brexit. The purpose of this paper is two-fold: first, to review the insights from recent research quantifying the impact of Brexit and, drawing on this, what these models imply about the likely challenges in determining the UK’s trade relations in a post-Brexit context. Second, to consider the specific issues that will apply to the UK food and agricultural sectors. These issues will be complex: the UK relies considerably on the EU for food imports and as a destination for exports; tariffs are higher in this sector compared with other sectors; and the use of non-tariff barriers is particularly prevalent. As a consequence, Brexit will have a potentially significant impact on the food and agricultural sectors with the consequence of reduced trade and higher food prices.

Keywords: Agricultural and Food Policy; International Relations/Trade (search for similar items in EconPapers)
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-int
Date: 2017-12-05
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