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Assessing spatial uncertainties of land allocation using the scenario approach and sensitivity analysis

Andrzej A. Tabeau, E. Hatna and Peter Verburg ()

No 95235, 116th Seminar, October 27-30, 2010, Parma, Italy from European Association of Agricultural Economists

Abstract: The paper assess uncertainty of future spatial allocation of agricultural land in Europe. To assess the possible future development of agricultural production and land for the period 2000 – 2030, two contrasting scenarios are constructed. The scenarios storylines lead to different measurable assumptions concerning scenario specific drivers (variables) and parameters. Many of them are estimations and thus include a certain level of uncertainty regarding their true values. This leads to uncertainty of the scenario outcomes. In this study we use sensitivity analysis to estimate the uncertainty of agricultural land use.

Keywords: Agribusiness; Agricultural and Food Policy; Community/Rural/Urban Development; Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety; Labor and Human Capital (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 16
Date: 2010-10-27
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-agr
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:ags:eaa116:95235

DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.95235

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