Evaluating productive and economic impacts of climate change variability on the farm sector of an irrigated Mediterranean area

Gabriele Dono, Raffaele Cortignani, Luca Giraldo (), Luca Doro, Luigi Ledda, Massimiliano Pasqui and PierPaolo Roggero

No 126099, 126th Seminar, June 27-29, 2012, Capri, Italy from European Association of Agricultural Economists

Abstract: Climate changes in agriculture act on various climate variables (precipitation, temperature, etc..) at different times of crop cycles. Many physical and technical relationships have to be represented even when analyzing a limited aspect of farm management. This work employs the net evapotranspiration (ETn) estimated with the EPIC model, as a synthetic index of the physical factors that the farmer considers in decisions on irrigation. The probability distribution of ETn is inserted into a territorial model of DSP that represents farm choices in conditions of uncertainty about water availability and irrigation requirements of crops. Recent trends of ETn suggest that the probability distribution of this variable may appreciably change in the near future. Also, water availability may become more variable due to changed rainfall. These modifications amplify uncertainty of management and, consequently, costs incurred by the farm typologies of the study area, which in many cases suffer an appreciable drop in income.

Keywords: Environmental; Economics; and; Policy (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 20
Date: 2012-06
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-agr and nep-env
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:ags:eaa126:126099

DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.126099

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