Commodity markets and trade to 2025: What is driving these changes?

William H. Meyers and Kateryna G. Schroeder

No 245172, 155th Seminar, September 19-21, 2016, Kiev, Ukraine from European Association of Agricultural Economists

Abstract: The paper provides an overview of the factors contributing to the decline in agricultural commodity prices and prospects to 2025 with a particular focus on supply, demand and policy factors. Agricultural and other commodity markets continue to be depressed, causing concern among farmers and their organizations as well as among policy makers concerned about the well-being of farmers. Factors contributing to these market changes are the excellent crops in recent years and growing stocks, the massive decline in petroleum prices that reduce production cost and slow biofuel demand growth, slowing economic growth in major importing countries like China, and changing exchange rate dynamics. We will use the FAPRI outlook update from August 2016 to assess the factors that are driving those results. Then we will offer commentary on what changes in market conditions or policies could alter the projected outcomes. Recent developments in trade disputes and regional trade agreements will also be assessed based on recent studies of these developments.

Keywords: International; Relations/Trade (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 15
Date: 2016-09-20
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:ags:eaa155:245172

DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.245172

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