Elicitation of Subjective Crop Yield PDF for DSS Implementation

M. Merce Clop-Gallart and Francisco Juarez-Rubio

No 24561, 2005 International Congress, August 23-27, 2005, Copenhagen, Denmark from European Association of Agricultural Economists

Abstract: The aim of this research is to establish the persistence of annual crop yield point values subjective estimates, and the coherence and reliability of subjective crop yield probability density functions (PDF) elicited from a series of interviews carried out on a wide group of farmers, and then to determine whether they should be included or not in a decision support system (DSS). Three different elicitation techniques were used: a) The Two Step PDF estimation method b) Triangular distribution c) Beta distribution Although the results are noteworthy, further studies should be carried out to perfect the aforementioned techniques before crop yield PDF's are used in decision making processes.

Keywords: Crop; Production/Industries (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 16
Date: 2005
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:ags:eaae05:24561

DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.24561

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