Agricultural Production with Change and Uncertainty: A Temporal Case Study Simulation of Colorado Potato Beetle

Jaakko Heikkilä (jaakko.heikkila@iki.fi) and Jukka Peltola

No 24679, 2005 International Congress, August 23-27, 2005, Copenhagen, Denmark from European Association of Agricultural Economists

Abstract: Changes in climatic and policy environments combined with uncertainty related to stochastic environmental fluctuations make design of invasive pest policy challenging. These external changes are often exacerbated by changes in the species characteristics. We discuss facing local change and uncertainty when deciding ex ante on a specific policy strategy. Our empirical case deals with an invasive agricultural pest, Colorado potato beetle, and agricultural production in Finland. Invasions are modelled as temporally random events and stochasticity in key variables is built into the analysis. The viability of two specific policy options is evaluated given uncertainty and local change.

Keywords: Crop; Production/Industries (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 16
Date: 2005
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:ags:eaae05:24679

DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.24679

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