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Linking models for land use analysis: experiences from the SENSOR project

Torbjorn Jansson, Martha M. Bakker, B. Boitier, Arnaud Fougeyrollas (), John F.M. Helming, Hans Meijl () and P.J. Verkerk

No 44169, 2008 International Congress, August 26-29, 2008, Ghent, Belgium from European Association of Agricultural Economists

Abstract: In order to quantify the effects of a comprehensive set of policies on land use, interaction between sectors needs to be accounted for, while maintaining a high level of detail for each sector. This calls for a combination of sector specific and sector wide models. This paper describes such a modelling system, with emphasis on the linking of the models to a coherent system. Five sectors of significant importance for land use are modelled individually: Forestry, agriculture, urban land use, transport infrastructure, and tourism. All models are connected as sub-modules to an economy-wide partial econometric model. In addition, a land cover model is used to disaggregate land use down to 1km grid resolution. The linking of such a diverse set of models in a consistent way poses conceptual as well as practical issues. The conceptual issues concern questions such as which items of the models to link, how to obtain a stable joint baseline scenario, and how to obtain a joint equilibrium solution for all models simultaneously in simulation. Practical issues concern the actual implementation of the conceptually sound linkages and provision of a workable technical solution. The linked system allows us to introduce a shock in either of the models, and the set of results will provide a joint solution for all sectors modelled in SENSOR. In this manner, the models take a complex policy scenario as argument and compute a comprehensive set of variables involving all five land use sectors on regional level, which in turn forms a basis for distilling out the impact on sustainability in the form of indicators. Without the extensive automation and technical linkages, it would not have been possible to obtain a joint equilibrium, or it would have required exorbitant amounts of working time.

Keywords: Land; Economics/Use (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 8
Date: 2008
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:ags:eaae08:44169

DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.44169

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