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Impacts of Inventory Management on Price Volatility in Agricultural Commodity Markets: Insights from a System Dynamics Model

Ernst Berg

No 261281, 2017 International Congress, August 28-September 1, 2017, Parma, Italy from European Association of Agricultural Economists

Abstract: Recent fluctuations of agricultural commodity prices have stimulated the debate on the potential causes of price volatility. One explanation is that weather shocks or other external factors perturb supply, thus leading to price fluctuations. An alternative explanation proposes that the persistent fluctuations are the result of nonlinear dynamics and would even occur in the absence of external shocks. This paper focuses on the latter explanation. We investigate under which conditions price volatility is primarily caused by nonlinear dynamics. Using a system dynamics modelling approach we show that plausible behaviour of actors can lead to persistent price fluctuations, even in the absence of external shocks.

Keywords: Agricultural and Food Policy; Marketing (search for similar items in EconPapers)
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-agr
Date: 2017-08-28
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