POPULATION, PROJECTIONS, AND POLICY: A CAUTIONARY PERSPECTIVE

J. Mayone Stycos

No 11885, Working Papers from Environmental and Natural Resources Policy Training Project

Abstract: Population projections depend on censuses, vital statistics, and sample surveys, all of which have deficiencies that are most marked in developing countries. Long-range projections by international agencies have recently undergone major revisions, and forecasts of the United States (U.S.) population have changed drastically over the past four years. The United Nations (UN) typically prepares high, medium, and low projections. Even the high projection contains optimistic assumptions about fertility decline, while assumptions of constant or increasing fertility receive no serious attention. This paper suggests that high and constant fertility projections should receive more attention from policymakers. They should treat medium estimates as targets achievable only through considerable programmatic effort. At the same time, they should plan economic and environmental efforts to deal with the population sizes implied by the high projections.

Keywords: Labor; and; Human; Capital (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 15
Date: 1994
References: View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
https://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/11885/files/wp12.pdf (application/pdf)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:ags:epatwp:11885

DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.11885

Access Statistics for this paper

More papers in Working Papers from Environmental and Natural Resources Policy Training Project
Bibliographic data for series maintained by AgEcon Search ().