WHY DO PROJECTIONS ON CHINA'S FUTURE FOOD SUPPLY AND DEMAND DIFFER?

Shenggen Fan and Mercedita C. Agcaoili-Sombilla

No 16111, EPTD Discussion Papers from CGIAR, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI)

Abstract: This paper analyzes the macroeconomic assumptions, demand and supply parameters, and structures of the models used in projecting China’s future food supply, demand, and trade. Projections from these models vary greatly, from China being almost self-sufficient in grain to becoming a net importer of 369 million metric tons of grain in 2030. The differences arrive mainly in the supply projections (the combined effect of land decline and yield growth). The paper also suggests methodology improvements needed in making future projections of China’s grain economy, such as endogenizing government policies, and taking into account the linkage between the agricultural with the non-agricultural sectors, technical change in livestock industry, and infrastructure constraints on grain imports.

Keywords: Food; Security; and; Poverty (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 33
Date: 1997
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
https://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/16111/files/ept-dp22.pdf (application/pdf)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:ags:eptddp:16111

DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.16111

Access Statistics for this paper

More papers in EPTD Discussion Papers from CGIAR, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by AgEcon Search ().