Energy Access Scenarios to 2030 for the Power Sector in Sub-Saharan Africa

Morgan Bazilian, Patrick Nussbaumer, Hans-Holger Rogner, Abeeku Brew-Hammond, Vivien Foster, Daniel M. Kammen, Shonali Pachauri, Williams Eric, Mark Howells, Philippe Niyongabo, Lawrence Musaba, Brian O Gallachoir and Mark Radka

No 116904, Energy: Resources and Markets from Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM)

Abstract: In order to reach a goal of universal access to modern energy services in Africa by 2030, consideration of various electricity sector pathways is required to help inform policy-makers and investors, and help guide power system design. To that end, and building on existing tools and analysis, we present several ‘high-level’, transparent, and economy-wide scenarios for the sub-Saharan African power sector to 2030. We construct these simple scenarios against the backdrop of historical trends and various interpretations of universal access. They are designed to provide the international community with an indication of the overall scale of the effort required. We find that most existing projections, using typical long-term forecasting methods for power planning, show roughly a threefold increase in installed generation capacity occurring by 2030, but more than a tenfold increase would likely be required to provide for full access – even at relatively modest levels of electricity consumption. This equates to approximately a 13% average annual growth rate, compared to a historical one (in the last two decades) of 1.7%.

Keywords: Resource/Energy; Economics; and; Policy (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 36
Date: 2011-10
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (4)

Downloads: (external link)
https://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/116904/files/NDL2011-068.pdf (application/pdf)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:ags:feemer:116904

DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.116904

Access Statistics for this paper

More papers in Energy: Resources and Markets from Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM) Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by AgEcon Search ().